Cyberwar in Ukraine

The article "Lessons from Russia's cyber-war in Ukraine" (The Economist, December 3rd) analyzed some key factors of the ongoing cyberwar in Ukraine, as an important part of the Ukraine war.

First, it pointed out that Russia prepared for a long time before the war. Their computer hackers brought down the satellite communications Ukraine relies on. They implanted malware "wiper" in hundreds of Ukrainian systems to delete data on the devices, and another malware called Industroyer2 to attack Ukraine's electricity grid.

However, today we know Ukrainian repelled most of Russia's cyber attacks. They learned from their failures in 2015 and 2016 when cities were paralyzed, and civilian services were cut off.

The critical part of Ukraine's successful defense is the intelligence support from the West. Before Russian troops crossed the border, the intelligence departments of the UK and the US warned several times. So Ukrainian have enough time to redeploy their commanders and data centers. And an alternative communication channel was established and worked after the satellite malfunctioned.

Firewalls and cyber-threat information databases from the West also helped Ukraine defend against cyberattacks. However, in this process, the West also learned a lot about Russia's cyber-tactics from Ukrainian.

Besides western governments, private cyber-security companies helped Ukraine to build its defense as well. For example, Microsoft provided its AI products to analyze malicious codes. ESET, a Slovakian firm, provided intelligence to obviate Industroyer2.

On the other hand, people analyzed why Russian cyber-forces underperformed as expectations. The main reason may be laid on their misjudgment about the time span of the war. Since they would take over Ukrainian facilities very soon, it's pointless to destroy them. As the war dragged on, Russians found themselves too optimistic. However, here comes a key difference between cyber-war and physical military action: the former needs a long period to prepare, reconnaissance and resource development, etc. Nowadays it's much harder for Russians to organize a new cyber-attack from scratch.

Some people argue that the power of cyber-war may be overestimated. They believe a cyber-attack that can make a real impact on the enemy is too expensive and non-lethal compared with missiles and tanks. But the full effect of cyber-war in Ukraine is far from clear. We may realize its real power in several years, if possible.